How brutal might the next couple years be for the live music business? Some 55 percent of Americans don't think live music should resume until a coronavirus vaccine is available—even if it takes more than a year—and only 27 percent say they'd be willing to go to a show if venues open before that, according to a new REUTERS/IPSOS poll. California GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM on Tuesday outlined a four-stage plan for eventually reopening the country's largest state, and concerts are in the last stage, with "the highest risk parts of our economy," to be contemplated only after "therapeutics have been developed." "Therapeutics" doesn't automatically mean waiting for a vaccine; it could include the development of effective treatments, which may appear well before a vaccine. It could still be a long way off. And now the first major cancellation of a 2021 music conference has arrived. FOLK ALLIANCE INTERNATIONAL, a gathering of acoustic musicians scheduled for next February in Kansas City, Mo., is off. "Moving a conference that draws more than 3,000 people from over 40 countries—in prime flu season—was the only responsible thing to do," executive director AENGUS FINNAN told VARIETY. For context, that's only a month before the next SXSW would presumably take place—or when a second straight SXSW conceivably could be canceled. That's how long and brutal this is and could continue to be. As for that vaccine, we've all been hearing estimates that it's probably 12–18 months away. There are efforts to try to fast-track a vaccine, but even then, that would mean getting it faster to health care workers and at-risk populations, not the average BILLIE EILISH or BON JOVI fan. And there are plenty of experts who say even 12–18 months is wildly optimistic. There are, of course, other governors and public officials who want everything to open sooner. But when is reasonable? Another month? Three months? The fall? The new year? Or is that the wrong question to ask? I'll stand with my governor, Newsom, on this. When it's medically safe to stand and dance and sing and scream along with 100 or 1,000 or 10,000 other people, that's when it will be reasonable. Whenever we get there. A group of live entertainment giants including LIVE NATION, AEG and the BROADWAY LEAGUE have asked Congress to extend emergency financial assistance to the live event industry, whose businesses "were the first to close and will be the last to reopen." They're also hoping to work with the CDC and FEMA on guidelines that would allow at least some venues to open. How about this for an extreme guideline: In 2014, as part of a Swedish film series, BOB DYLAN and his band played a set at the ACADEMY OF MUSIC in Philadelphia for a single fan, Swedish journalist FREDRIK WIKINGSSON. This is one of my favorite live videos on YOUTUBE. It's also, obviously, economically unfeasible as a continuing live entertainment option. But some enterprising artist or promoter could replicate it or, better, find other options that adapt what they do to these strange times, rather than trying to force these strange times to adapt to what they do. What other solutions might exist between a lonely living room livestream and a traditional concert? How do you expand the former? How do you shrink the latter? How do you continue to fill this new space we're inhabiting with sound?... NICK CAVE on musical plagiarism is beautiful and true... RIP Grammy winning classical cellist LYNN HARRELL (whose instrument got him banned for life from DELTA's frequent flyer program), MCKENZIE BELL and INDIA ADAMS... And finally today, welcome back to some users at MICROSOFT-owned email services who may have been missing our emails because of spam filter issues. Apologies.